By the middle of the century, the United Nations estimates that the world population is likely to increase to more than nine billion, which is equivalent to an extra 200,000 people each day. Professor Rapley said the extra resources needed to sustain this growth in population would put immense strains on the planet's life-support system even if pollution emissions per head could be dramatically reduced.
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7 comments:
I agree but somehow the topic bores me, mainly, I think, because it's hard to see any solution except something like Whitley Streiber's "dying back." Mass starvation, worldwide pandemics, WWIII... and WWIII (even turning nuclear) would probably contribute the LEAST to the dying back. I'd say we have just three chances -- fat, slim, and none.
Yah, Bear, in general must agree with you. I see no way out that does not involve a Great Dying. Which itself could cause a planetary collapse of civilization. There's just too many of US.
From what I've read, beginning about 2050 we can expect population to begin a long, slow slide. However: how can we deal with another three to nine billion (varying estimates), before that postulated dimunition begins? I honestly don't see any easy way out at all, and honestly feel that one way or another there WILL be a Great Dying.
To my mind, the future bodes ill. Even so, being at heart somewhat optimistic, I really do feel that if we can make it through this century, we're pretty much home free. But the next 95 years are gonna be tough. Mighty tough.
Mac:
Not to be glib, but overpopulation never seems like a real problem to a Canadian. We've got lots of room to spare (so does Russia), so long as people are willing to move up north.
I think the real problem is massive urbanization. Everybody wants to live in the city these days.
Paul
Don't anybody see overpopulation as a chance for real colonization of space? You don't see a way out, I see it.
Each additional human being is an additional bit of capital. And "capital" is an economic way to say "power". The more ppl Earth bears the more powerful we as the mankind become.
Prior to the age of oil and it's subsequent industrial and so-called "green" revolution, the world had managed to support only about 1.5 billion people at most. The green revolution occurred because oil-based pesticides and natural gas-based fertilizers allowed food production to increase to an absurd level, enabling the population boom that followed. We now consume roughly 10 calories of fossil fuel energy for every 1 calorie of food produced, not counting the energy involved in processing, packing, shipping and cooking. Given that the world is now reaching it's maximum fossil fuel production point and will soon see the beginning of it's irreversible decline, a large scale dieoff is unavoidable.
It's really nothing new; virtually every species experiences the same phenomenon when circumstances produce a food surplus. The population expands eventually exceeding the normal carrying capacity of the environment, the food surplus is ultimately exhausted and a dieoff follows. Wishful thinking notwithstanding, human civilizations are not immune to such natural laws...
Given that the world is now reaching it's maximum fossil fuel production point and will soon see the beginning of it's irreversible decline, a large scale dieoff is unavoidable
And why is that? It's unavoidable unless mankind switches to another energy source, beginning a new "revolution". Calling it a "wishful thinking" you deny everything economics teaches us about the need driving men to invent, find solutions, surpass obstacles etc. Talking about every species doesn't apply to us. We are by far not immune to these natural laws you mentioned, but that doesn't mean they affect us the same as any other species.