Thursday, November 17, 2005

Rupert Sheldrake:

It's easy to be a media skeptic. You get the last word. You can say what you like. You don't have to spend years doing actual research. And you yourself can remain immune from criticism, because those you criticize have no right of reply. [. . .]

The problem seems to be in part that the media feel the need to present a "balanced" view, and this creates an opportunity for negative skeptics to pursue their agenda. Well-funded skeptical advocacy organizations like CSICOP, the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal, concentrate their attention on getting their message into the media as often as possible, always with the privilege of the last word. They are very successful. Some TV channels, including National Geographic in its current "Is It Real?" series, have allowed themselves to become mass-market vehicles for organized skepticism.

If the media want to give a balanced view, one simple solution would be to reverse the normal procedure. Ask the skeptics to speak first, saying why they think something like telepathy is impossible, and then let those who have carried out real investigations present actual evidence. Better still, create a level playing field. Allow replies. This would be much more interesting for readers and viewers.

Unfortunately, media skeptics like Michael Shermer seem to be afraid of real debates. I would love to see a televised dialogue between you and him, with equal time on both sides. But I think he would do his best to avoid such an encounter. (Via The Anomalist.)


The irony is that real skepticism is a priceless intellectual tool. But Shermer and his associates prefer to cling to pseudoskepticism when faced with phenomena outside their realm of expertise. Consequently, the media's perception of "skepticism" has become a flaccid caricature. We desperately need to jettison this shopworn false dichotomy.

18 comments:

Gerald T said...

It’s all relative Mac.

I may say that I go over hundreds of Mars Spirit Rover photos, and discard thousands of anomalies from contention before posting them to my Rover Blog, scrutinizing each odd object that I spot utilizing an innate pattern recognition ability, judging each item based on symmetry, counting each ninety and forty five degree angel that I see, looking closely for repeating patterns, precise rectangles, circles, and triangles, and Yet…

And Yet, one of those POS skeptics would take a quick cursory look at the Mars Relay Station, and state that it is ‘nothing but’ me creating connect the dots patterns in my mind, avoiding any discussion of the features mentioned above.

Well, who needs that scum sucking vermin any how, they don’t count for squat in my world.
Question Mac, just why and how much do they count in you world?

In the end we exist inside a Reflective Sphere, the enemy is in/of our own minds, the skeptics are of/are the same madness that we are imbued with, only by letting go of…

…but I have started to ramble, Take a look at the latest artifact, WOW!

http://marsrelaystation.blogspot.com/

One of the best ever,

or its ‘nothing but’ a rock. ;]

The Odd Emperor said...

Now see; many would call me an uber-skeptic (or some less flattering term.)

I am very skeptical of (my words) “opinion couched as fact.” But, I might look at a Mars anomaly and say “well, this might be an artifact/animal/vegetable- etc but since I’m not an expert in Mars geology, I don’t have deep knowledge of the equipment used to take the photographs. I do have very good knowledge regarding photo manipulation and filtering. In this light it’s very difficult for me to render any opinion pro or con.” But that’s about all I will say about a single piece of evidence (or even a vast body of evidence.)

But, where are all the reflexive skeptical morons out there insanely debunking everything? I’ve never met one and I’d like to. I’d tell them that they are being stupid.

People have a natural tendency to simplify their own feelings as apposed to following the simplest data path. If one believes strongly enough it’s quite simple to weight evidence based on that belief rather than on its own merits.

But this is not science nor is it skepticism.

W.M. Bear said...

Anomalistics isn't about whether one "believes" that a given anomaly "is" or "isn't" X, Y, or Z. It is that genuine anomalies, such as many Martian formations that at least give the appearance of possibly being artificial are worthy of study AS anomalies or not. The problem with much "professional skepticism" like Shermer's is just that its impulse is to DISMISS anomalies from consideration AS SUCH and, especially, to dismiss more bizarre-sounding possibilities OUT OF HAND, with rubric's like the famous "extraordinary claims etc." This is definitely not science.

A note on the need for expertise. I agree, up to a point. The problem here is that experts in fields like geology and archeology don't want to touch this stuff for (probably justifiable) fears that it will trash their careers. Plus, look, a geologist by training is going to look at formations like the Face and think geology not archeology. JPL's complete obsession with Mars rover geology even at the expense of basic exobiology is a prime example of this. Of course there are all kinds of rationalizations for "doing science" this way, but that's exactly what they are, rationalizations. This is precisely why we non-experts have to get in the game. I would argue that anomalistics is a legitimate field requiring broad general knowledge rather than specialization in a particular field.

geraldt -- I just checked out your latest. Good work!

W.M. Bear said...

Anomaly

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

"An anomaly is a deviation from the common rule. It is an irregularity that is difficult to explain using existing rules or theory."

Certainly the term "anomaly" correctly applies to many Martian formations. They are DIFFICULT to explain in strictly geological terms. Which means, in effect, not that "experts" can't come up with orthodox explanations, but simply that these explanations (in many cases) seem like a real stretch.

The Odd Emperor said...

Some good points.

Most of the JPL bunch, being engineers (etc) will not be particularly open-minded about anomalous stuff.

W.M. Bear said
Certainly the term "anomaly" correctly applies to many Martian formations. They are DIFFICULT to explain in strictly geological terms. Which means, in effect, not that "experts" can't come up with orthodox explanations, but simply that these explanations (in many cases) seem like a real stretch.


Well certainly an expert is capable of coming up with a fantastic explanation for a given anomaly. But you have to remember that what might be strange to a lay-person is probably known to an expert. Someone might look at a Mars photo which (we think) depicts a very obvious artificial widget and say (derisively) “rock!” Why? Because he (or she) is close-minded? Because they are not prepared for the advent of artifacts on Mars?

No; they have probably seen far more rocks like that then you or I have. Also, they are not looking for widgets because the *rocks themselves* are fascinating. Just like an auto mechanic would not take kindly to you or I telling them that your car has an evil spirit inside or a pilot being told that there is a spaceship pacing their aircraft.

The mark of a true expert is that, by definition they will see *far less* anomalies than a lay person. Anomalies are not usually a part of the job and often they detract from the original task.

But, my blanket statement about Mars widgets is that no one has any business covering such things up. Heck I wish someone would find a freaking spanner on Mars, we’d have spacecraft there in two years.

W.M. Bear said...

The mark of a true expert is that, by definition they will see *far less* anomalies than a lay person. Anomalies are not usually a part of the job and often they detract from the original task. Also an excellent point, but it actually supports my argument that anomalistics is too important to be left to the "experts." They WILL miss a lot of stuff just because they're not looking for it while, at the same time, they ARE focused on non-anomalies. In dicussions with various people on this board, one thing seems to come out fairly clearly. A lot of people, including many experts, are basically BLIND to some Martian anomalies, precisely because their training, in a deep sense, actually doesn't LET them see them. When they seem something like the D&M; Pyramid or the Face, their immediate thought is "geology." They can then read any number of papers by serious students of these phenomena like Carlotto or Mac and STILL not even see the possibilities that are being talked about.

Again, I'm not requiring belief from anybody, just an expanded sense of possibilities. The two seem very difficult to separate for a lot of people, especially those "pseudo skeptics" who seem to equate "extraordinary claim" with a certain type of HYPOTHESIS (which is NOT a claim and not even a theory but basically merely a proposed line of investigation).

An "extraordinary claim" regarding the Martian anomalies would be this: "The Face and the D&M; Pyramid, among other formations, ARE remnants left behind by an ancient Martian civilization." Yes, some people ARE claiming this but I'm not one of them. And yes, the "extraordinary evidence" for this claim (in, say, the form of an ancient Martian spanner) does not (at least yet) exist. (Also some of gerald t's finds strike me as pretty suggestive of tool-like or machine-part-like artifacts.) I won't get into my conspiracy theory about a possible coverup of such evidence, although I find that POSSIBILITY (it's NOT a belief, folks, just a sense of possibility) at the very least suggestive.

The anomalistic HYPOTHESIS is simply that many formations on Mars have an appearance that is at least (again) SUGGESTIVE of artificiality and, at the same time, seem difficult to explain in terms of known geological processes. Therefore, one line of research would be to refine our criteria for determining from aerial/satellite and rover photography what to look for in these terms and how to know it if and when we see it. What gets me exercised is the "mainstream" refusal (based on dismissive false skepticism) even to "entertain" this kind of hypothesis. (It's not an extraordinary claim, folks, it's JUST a hypothesis.)

gordon said...

WMB,

"Also an excellent point, but it actually supports my argument that anomalistics is too important to be left to the "experts." They WILL miss a lot of stuff just because they're not looking for it while, ..."

I don't think that this is actually the reason "experts" don't see your anomalies - they don't "miss" these anomalies - but rather, due to their expertise, they know (to a high level of certainty) what these things are. Therefore these things are not anomalistic. We non-experts just think they are.

That is not to say that there aren't anomalies in most fields of study. The point is that the existence of these real anomalies is _usually_ found by people studying in that field. Not surprising, since they're the ones who devote their lives to looking at the evidence and relationships in that particular field. Physics (gravity being the obvious one), chemistry (eg chiral amino acids), biology (eg evolution of the cheetah) etc etc all throw up anomalous data.

Now no one is arrogant enough to assume we know or can explain everything. But an important point to keep in mind is that there _are_ a lot of things we _can_ explain, and trying to explain anomalous data rationally, requires that one be able to still explain, to the same level of accuracy or greater, those things that we _already_ have theories for. Sadly, this is often overlooked.

Of course, there is no requirement for the Universe to be rational, and the Great Horned Goat of Saggitarius Major may decide to sneeze us out of existence tomorrow. It's a pretty dim probability however, because everything we measure, analyse and experiment on has so far indicated that (at least our local area of) the Universe seems to follow rational laws that we can elucidate and construct a philosophy and science from.

There is also no requirement for any _one_ to think rationally (other than vague social/cultural mores). But if you want to use science and its tenets to try and describe or explain an anomaly, then you _do_ need to consider rational analysis. And in context (an important point). Attacking scientists or other people who study a field of endeavour for a living, just because they don't see what you see, is an entirely unproductive enterprise. Claiming that some "armchair" expert knows more about the science of the Universe than the combined expertise of dozens of multi-disiplinary scientists, just because they went through a mid-life crisis and wrote a book (Von Daniken, Sitchin, Hancock etc) and claim a conspiracy amongst the "evil mainstreamers", is laughable. Unfortunately, it is a phenomenon that is becoming more and more common, partiularly in the USA. In fact the last time I gave a talk there (in 1999), I was amazed at the variation between brilliance and stupidity in the audience and at the after-hours events. And that was at a military-funded conference!

Additionally, blindly supporting just one expert's opinion, without listening to his argument and framing it in the context of equal minded opinions, is also a dangerous path. As an example, one of Carlotta's papers on the Cydonia region, whilst quite logical in the mathematics of the argument, is based on two or three statistical assumptions that are really very shaky. Not surprising, as I once taught a postgrad course on remote sensing and was amazed at how many "professionals" were using statistical techniques that were so old, no one remembered the underlying assumptions that had to be made for the techniques to be valid.

Are there artificial structures on Mars? It's _very_ unlikely that what we see at the moment is artificial, for a million reasons. Still, it can in principle be tested. But before one would go down that path, one would want the experts in astrobiology or planetary geophysics to agree that there is indeed something anomalous. Claiming that they are _not_ looking at these things, or are deliberately misleading Earth's population, is childish. They _are_ looking at the same things you are. They probably look at a lot more as well. They just don't see these things as anomalistic. Nothing more, nothing less. And really, any unbiased observer (of which a few have commented on the thread on the new Mars ESA photos, just as an example) will reach the same conclusion.

That doesn't mean there are _not_ any artificial artifacts on Mars. It doesn't mean there are no extra-terrestrial artifacts on Earth. But it does mean that there is as yet, no evidence of such. One can speculate, but that's all; until someone actually gets there (and I don't think it matters whether that someone is NASA, ESA, China, Paul Allen or anyone else).

I'm a sceptic - I bet _that_ surprises you :-). And I've always been one. But that doesn't mean I eat babies. It means I start with a sceptical attitude to everything. I listen to people who can prove that they know what they're talking about. I try to test their theories in relation to other, more established ones, or ones for which we have evidence for. I make plenty of wild suppositions, but I don't try to give them the same weight of evidence as more carefully thought-out propositions. Eventually I learn.

Remember that even a rational reality is a pretty interesting place. We don't need to fabricate stories just to make it more interesting.

Gerald T said...

The skeptics who have posted here have not done one thing, they have not gone to my blog and looked at an anomaly, and explained why it is more likely to be natural than artificial.

Why? Their reasons are stated, the experts already know way more about the objects then they do, so…no use in them taking a look…

To advance to a higher state of awareness on must become as a child,

Go
Look
Describe
Enjoy




http://marsrelaystation.blogspot.com/

W.M. Bear said...

I don't think that this is actually the reason "experts" don't see your anomalies - they don't "miss" these anomalies - but rather, due to their expertise, they know (to a high level of certainty) what these things are. Therefore these things are not anomalistic. We non-experts just think they are.

Gordon -- I respect your viewpoint, believe me. But consider this. You are proposing that we basically "leave it all" to the "experts" and invest an almost religious faith in their expertise that's usually reserved for, well, God. I've made a similar point before but, for one thing, there is far from unanimity AMONG experts and, for another, "expertise" of the kind we're referring to has a large component of politics involved. This is why Thomas Kuhn's groundbreaking study The Structure of Scientific Revolutions made such a stir. He focused strongly on just this aspect of scientific development. Paradigm shifts essentially happen by majority vote given that the basic science is in place. Speaking of geology, the long-delayed acceptance of the theory of tectonic plate migration is a prime example of a hypothesis that was not only not accepted by the community of experts in general but actually ridiculed in that peculiar way that scientists as well as fundamentalists have of trying to shut off debate and dismiss radical ideas out of hand. In addition, given the paucity of "on the ground" Mars data to work with, there really are no true experts in fields like exobiology (I would argue, anyway) let alone exoarcheology or whatever you want to call it. None. It's ALL speculation and, based on some of the logic -- or rather DISlogic -- that I've seen in the writings of our favorite whipping boy Seth Shostak or, for that Michael Shermer, one doesn't need an advanced degree in geology to see where the so-called "experts" go wrong.

But before one would go down that path, one would want the experts in astrobiology or planetary geophysics to agree that there is indeed something anomalous. Claiming that they are _not_ looking at these things, or are deliberately misleading Earth's population, is childish. They _are_ looking at the same things you are. They probably look at a lot more as well. They just don't see these things as anomalistic.

Well, actually NOT, or not that I've seen, anyway. My impression from following the saga of the two Mars rovers is that the JPL DOES pretty much simply ignore a lot of interesting stuff of the kind that gerald t likes to focus on. True, they don't try to explain it away, they just flat IGNORE it.

And speaking of designing experiments (including your great neural net idea) to test Martian artificiality, I just thought of a psychological test to measure the bias of so-called experts in the various relevant fields. Mix up photographs of some of the less familiar Martian formations with pictures of similar Earth-based formations both natural and artificial and simply "test" the acuity of experts to pick out which is what. Even better, use ALL earth-based artificial formations and tell the experts being tested that some are photographs of Martian formations. I'll bet THAT would produce some interesting results. Even better, take some slightly out-of-focus shots of decayed and rusted machine parts on earth that have been placed in the midst of a lot of stone riprap, pretend these are Mars rover pix, and see what kind of results we get. I'm willing to bet that, based on what an expert THINKS is the ORIGIN of the photograph, what is identified IN the photograph comes out quite differently!

gordon said...

WMB,

Please re-read. I'm honestly _not_ saying we should not question "authoritative" statements. I'm saying we need to critically analyse.

GeraldT,

I've looked. I didn't see anything. Can we at least agree on that?

W.M. Bear said...

I've looked. I didn't see anything. Can we at least agree on that?

I'll accept that you're not uncritically bowing to the authority of "experts." As to seeing stuff in the rover pix, both gerald and I have a hard time, I think, understanding why WE can see stuff and hardly anybody else can. Understand, I'm not CLAIMING that some of the "weird Mars rocks" in the rover pix are NECESSARILY artifacts, only that many of them look downright suspicious and suggestive, at any rate, at the very least of anomalies. Every place the rovers turn, the Mars riprap looks different (and much, MUCH weirder) than any comparable areas I've seen on Earth (and I HAVE hiked AZ a good deal). All I can come up with (thanks to gerald) is the notion that, if most people can't identify what they're looking at, they simply don't see it. And since alien artifacts are, IN PRINCIPLE, unidentifiable, they simply aren't seen (again, by most people). My own approach to the rover pix is thus NOT to attempt to identify anything but simply look for strange, regular patterns and shapes among the rocks. And, it turns out, there are plenty of them. To ME, some of them ARE (I'll confess) suggestive of slagged or exploded machine parts. Again, I'm not saying that they necessarily ARE this, just that they look to me more like machine parts (and, on occasion, even fossils) than they do "just rocks." It does constantly amaze me that friends I show these pictures to typically don't see the anomalies (for that is what they are) either. Understand, I'm not claiming any great visionary powers or such, only expressing amazement that most people don't seem to see anything out of the ordinary in the rover pictures when they're FULL of stuff that's WAY out the ordinary!

gordon said...

WMB,

I appreciate your honesty. With regards as to these "slagged parts" scattering the landscape, have you noticed how they are (almost) always rocks in the background? One of two things are suggested here:

1. NASA has managed, against all odds, to pick a straight line through an ancient battleground, whereby keeping all artifacts, which would have been scattered randomly, at a distance.

2. These anomalies (or most of them) only show up at distance and at poor focus. Upon close-range inspection, they resolve to just rocks. Probably due to camera calibration in an alien atmosphere with unique refractive and colour absorbtion characteristics.

This is what I mean by critical analysis. Which do you think is the most likely?

W.M. Bear said...

gordon -- Thanks. I somewhat agree. I think it's likely that many if not most of these possible anomalies ARE "just rocks." There is, in fact, one notable instance I saved just to remind myself of this very possibility. In the poor-focus navcam pic, there is what appears to be a perfect disk just sitting there in the sand. The sharper, closer color version shows this to be a very nicely-shaped ellipsoidal, yes, rock. (On Earth, interestingly, rocks typically get shaped like this in the smooth flow of water over a river bed for eons.) However, "many if not most" does not equal "all." And the problem really is that there ISN'T (in nearly all cases) a closer-range inspection.

As to the landscape being littered with possible artifacts, well, if the civilization was destroyed by some kind of apocalypse, either natural or not, you would get this result, I think. Improbable, maybe, but definitely not impoosible. In fact, I would stand the famous "extraordinary claims" rubric on its head and say that extraordinary POSSIBILITIES, no matter how unlikely, deserve serious scientific consideration.

The Odd Emperor said...

Well I think it’s important to keep an open mind on the subject. Finding artifacts on Mars would be utterly fascinating. Seeing a clear artifact image that has not been photographically blown up or otherwise massaged would be the high point of my life—no less. But I haven’t seen one yet, I’ve seen thousands of interesting images that If I use my imagination I could interpret as all kinds of strange things.

Gerald T said...
The skeptics who have posted here have not done one thing, they have not gone to my blog and looked at an anomaly, and explained why it is more likely to be natural than artificial.


Heh! would you like me to do that? Most of the time the opinions of a skeptic are not exactly welcome.

Gerald T said...
Why? Their reasons are stated, the experts already know way more about the objects then they do, so…no use in them taking a look….

Really! Who said that? I mentioned that experts probably *know* more about this kind of photo analysis, that’s why they are called experts. Laypeople (like us) can look all we want (with the added irony of an organization supposedly covering up data while at the same time handing up the data on public channels.) We (as laypeople) will probably make more mistakes in our analyses than the experts, that’s my point.

This is not to say that a layperson cannot make a contribution, simply that it’s far more likely any given conclusion’s going to erroneous. This is exactly why the experts appear to ignore stuff we laypeople might think significant. Primarily they are just looking for rocks. Rocks being (as was said) fascinating all by themselves. Secondly, the experts risk nothing less than getting the sack for making wild claims. This fact will make them far more conservative than someone with little or nothing at stake.

gordon said...

GeraldT,

"To advance to a higher state of awareness on must become as a child, ..."

Could you explain this statement? In general, children have trouble discriminating between fantasy and reality. Is this what you mean by "higher state of awareness"?
If so, in adults most would call this some form of psychosis. With good reason. It retards your functioning within reality.

W.M. Bear said...

odd e -- I'm certainly not making any CLAIMS for the stuff I see. Merely noting that many objects are suggestive either of artificiality or of natural processes for which I have yet to see a convincing explanation. And I can practically guarantee that if you showed THE VERY SAME IMAGES to, say, professional archeologists (and maybe even geologists) while sneakily withholding information concerning their origin (possibly even claiming they came from an archeological site on Earth) you'd get all kinds of excited exclamations and tentative artifact identifications. The simple fact that these photographs ARE from the surface of Mars preconditions most people to think along these lines: "It's not possible, therefore I can't be seeing it, therefore I DON'T see it." This is why gerald's suggestion of coming to these pictures with a kind of childlike wonder (as, in fact, I also try to do) is totally apt. Otherwise, your preconceptions WILL prevent you from truly seeing.

gordon said...

WMB,

"This is why gerald's suggestion of coming to these pictures with a kind of childlike wonder (as, in fact, I also try to do) is totally apt."

And here I think you nicely sum up the difference between our positions. There is a world of difference (literally) between feeling "childlike wonder" when faced with a true anomaly, and using "childlike wonder" to explain something.

Young children can certainly learn quite quickly, in a variety of environments (but as an aside, they're ability to retain such learning is not generally as advanced as in adults). But as I noted above, they are incapable of discriminating between that which is real, and that which is imaginary. Therefore using a "childlike" approach, whilst great grist for SF novels and films, doesn't help in the real world to determine the identity of an unknown object. Not unless there is someone there "guiding" you!

I re-visited GeraldT's blog. There are pictures of rocks. And more rocks. I cannot discern any "90deg angles", "45deg angles", v8 engine blocks or anything else out of the ordinary for the surface of another planet.

W.M. Bear said...

gordon -- Well, your response to the pictures, I have to confess, simply leaves me baffled. Again, any identifications (such as "engine blocks" etc.) are made strictly for the sake of having a tag to apply to something which I'll admint, I do not have the faintest foggiest fucking notion what it is, only that it does not, to me, look "natural." So what I'm seeing are really things that DON'T LOOK (to me anyway) like any rocks I've ever seen or, especially, anything I can imagine being a rock. This does not mean that I'm pretending to know what it IS only what it ISN'T (basically). Maybe natural processes on Mars are SO different from those on Earth that they produce truly weird objects like these although I'm inclined to doubt it. And BTW, not everything strange in these pictures strikes as possibly (note the POSSIBLY) being artificial -- there are also some very suggestive fossil-like objects as well, a possibility that may seem a bit more likely to most folks than artificiality. I was, for a while, madly drawing rectangles around stuff I saw in Paint, then expanding the images, and sending them around to various people -- still nada. So you're definitely in "good" company. Most other people don't seem to see anything out of the ordinary either. I will not go so far as to suggest a kind of culturally conditioned "blindness" though. Maybe gerald and I ARE just "seeing things" but I guarantee you, if that's the case, it's one helluva trip. Looking at these pictures with this sort of "eye" has definitely reinvigorated MY sense of wonder.