The finding suggests that health officials - now stockpiling millions of doses of the drug to forestall a global outbreak of influenza and buy time to develop and mass produce a vaccine - should also consider other options, according to Yoshihiro Kawaoka, an international authority on influenza and the senior author of the Nature paper.
At least we saw bird flu coming. My biggest disease concern is a mystery illness that starts offing people in large numbers before researchers are able to assess what we're dealing with. And as prehistoric germs for which we have no natural immunity are released into the oceans by melting polar ice, the possibility of a crippling epidemic looms frighteningly closer.
Peter Watts develops a similarly nightmarish scenario in his Rifters novels. In his imagined near-future, overpopulation has driven humanity to leech energy from deep-sea hydrothermal vents. In the process of exploiting the ocean floor, an ancient virus is unleashed and proceeds to decimate the planet despite a last-ditch attempt to sterilize the threat with an underwater nuclear explosion.
The amazing thing about these books is that they make Stephen King's "The Stand" look almost cuddly.
5 comments:
The unknown (presently) aspect of Avian Flu is whether or not it actually will initiate a pandemic. While things certainly don't look good for us, and H5N1 does seem to have developed person to person transmissability in both Vietnam and Indonesia, there is yet the small possibility that H5N1 will not cause a pandemic. It might turn out to be a bust, as did SARS. Even so, it's appearing more dangerous all the time, due to its constant variation/mutation, and as you noted, is developing resistance to available medication.
What IS certain, is that if not H5N1, then another; if not today, then tomorrow. As noted on this blog and elsewhere, long hidden surfaces are now being exposed, and there is no way to know what they may reveal. Not to mention lab and transport carelessness, intentional alteration and distribution, etc. etc.. Quite possibly,one or more of these may cause Death For Millions.
IMO, sooner or later a Great Dying of Humanity is inevitable. Hopefully, that's merely a product of my cynicism and distrust of the future. Logically - to me - such WILL OCCUR. I see no way out of that. Would prefer to be mistaken.
BTW, Mac: my apologies for stuffing that article ref. Gregory Paul's conclusions concerning religion and national welfare in an unrelated thread. But things roll off the front page here and are forgotten. Since I insist on a personal policy of thorough investigation, I occasionally forget courtesy. In other words, if you wish to delete that, I don't mind - much.
And I really do appreciate you allowing me to post here. Can't recall how many places, both real and virtual, I've been kicked out of. I just keep spelling tact t-a-n-k! :-D
Also, glad to see there is potential (apparently) for a serious relationship between you and "Elisabeth". Since the very mention of Ballet causes me to cast about wildly for a revolver, I misdoubt she'd much care for me .... ;-)
A 'Stand' die off would be an adventure on top of a nightmare. Thats why I think its not going to happen.
SARS, the Hanta virus, monkey pox, E boli, the flesh eating bacteria (my personal fav) none ever seem to take. While the Spanish flu killed more than WWI did even that didnt really dent the global population. Only time the global population has realy gone down in recorded history was during the black death. Since we have sewage systems, hospitals, and lava soap and they didnt Im betting no huge outbrake.
When more folks die from bird flu that drunk drivers let me know.
Ken,
Feel free to keep posting. I won't even think of deleting anything unless it's just plain offensive and dumb, and none of yout posts have been. I think some moderators enjoy a power-rush when they give posters the boot.
Boogers, here's hoping you win your bet. Thus far, we've escaped a serious pandemic. But, sewers and soap notwithstanding, IMO such is a real possibility.
Let's hope I'm merely another paranoid old fart. ;-)
Not only is this H5N1 virus developing resistance to Tamiflu, and production facilities world wide inadequate, a primary source of material for the production of Tamiflu is in very short supply. I myself never had a clue that an herb was vital to its production. BTW: if you're not careful, the damned stuff can explode whle you're making it! That sucks!
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/health_medical/article319716.ece
"A rare herb grown in China used to flavour duck dishes and treat infants for colic is at the centre of a worldwide search for a cure for avian flu.
Star anise, the unusual fruit of a small oriental tree, is sold in supermarkets in the UK to consumers seeking its pungent, liquorice-like flavour.
But the herb has a vital function as the source of shikimic acid from which the drug Tamiflu is made, the only defence the world currently has against the threatened flu pandemic.
Tamiflu cannot prevent infection with avian flu but it can reduce its severity. In the absence of an effective vaccine - which has not yet been developed - it is all that stands between the world and what could become a modern plague.
Yesterday it emerged that a shortage of star anise is one of the key reasons why countries including Britain cannot obtain enough Tamiflu to protect their populations. European Union ministers met yesterday to discuss measures to reduce contact between wild birds and poultry to curb its spread.
" .... Article continues.
I sure as hell hope boogey_man is right, and I'm tweaked over nothing.